Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California 91125 Economics, Entitlements and Social Issues: Voter Choice in the 1996 Presidential Election

Theory: Contemporary theories of presidential election outcomes, especially the economic voting and spatial issue voting models, are used to examine voter choice in the 1996 presidential election. Hypotheses: First, we look at the e ects of voter perceptions of the national economy on voter support for Clinton. Second we look at the e ects of candidate and voter positions on ideology and on a number of issues. Last, we examine whether respondents' views on other issues | social issues such as abortion as well as issues revolving around entitlements and taxation that were emphasized by the campaigns | played signi cant roles in this election. Methods: Multinomial probit analysis of the 1996 National Election Studies data; simulations based on counterfactual scenarios based on di erent macroeconomic conditions and di erent issue platforms of candidates. Results: The e ects of economic perceptions are much greater than the e ects of voter issue positions on the election outcome. Some social issues, namely abortion, did play a role in determining the election outcome. The presence of a third centrist candidate limited the ability of other candidates to improve their vote shares by moving in the issue space. Economics, Entitlements and Social Issues: Voter Choice in the 1996 Presidential Election R. Michael Alvarez Jonathan Nagler